Market Sentiments

HY OAS vs SPX Daily high-yield spread vs equity index

What it is: High-yield spreads track the credit premium demanded for lower-quality corporate debt.
How to read it: Wider spreads imply rising stress and tighter risk conditions; tighter spreads reflect improving credit appetite.
How to use it: Compare spread compression or widening against SPX to judge whether equities are trading with or against the credit tape.

VIX / VIX3M vs SPX Latest 365 daily term-structure observations vs equity index

What it is: The VIX to VIX3M ratio measures whether near-term volatility is priced above three-month volatility.
How to read it: Readings above 1 usually mark backwardation and short-horizon stress; readings below 1 imply calmer term structure.
How to use it: Use spikes above 1 as stress markers, then watch whether SPX stabilizes as the ratio falls back into contango.

OFR Financial Stress Index Daily vs SPX Daily headline stress index vs equity index

What it is: The daily OFR Financial Stress Index is a broad market-based stress gauge.
How to read it: Higher readings indicate tighter market conditions, while more negative readings imply easier conditions.
How to use it: Use it to see whether a broad stress regime is emerging beneath day-to-day SPX price action.

VIX Level vs SPX Month-end implied volatility vs equity index

What it is: VIX measures implied near-term S&P 500 volatility from option pricing.
How to read it: rising VIX typically reflects demand for protection and tightening risk appetite; falling VIX usually supports calmer market conditions.
How to use it: use volatility spikes as stress markers, then watch whether SPX stabilizes as VIX cools to gauge whether panic is fading.

Breadth Proxy vs SPX Daily equal-weight participation vs equity index

What it is: equal-weight ETFs divided by cap-weight ETFs. It is a proxy for whether the average stock is keeping up with the index leaders.
How to read it: falling ratios signal narrowing participation beneath index-level strength, while rising ratios show broader stocks starting to confirm the move.
How to use it: falling ratios while SPX rises suggest narrow leadership and higher fragility. Rising ratios suggest participation is broadening.

Retail Sentiment vs Manager Exposure AAII bull-bear spread & NAAIM exposure vs equity index

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AAII Bullish % vs SPX Monthly AAII bullish share vs equity index

What it is: AAII bullish percentage tracks the share of retail survey respondents who report a bullish outlook, shown against the S&P 500.
How to read it: very high bullish readings can indicate crowded optimism, while compressed readings can signal caution or washed-out sentiment.
How to use it: watch for sentiment extremes that diverge from SPX trend. Rising bullishness with a stalling index can signal froth; depressed bullishness with stabilizing SPX can support a contrarian read.

Financial Conditions vs SPX Chicago Fed NFCI vs equity index

What it is: Chicago Fed NFCI. Negative values usually mean looser-than-average financial conditions; positive values mean tighter-than-average conditions.
How to read it: tightening conditions can pressure valuations and liquidity. Loose conditions can support risk assets, but may also reflect complacency if paired with narrow breadth or heavy insider selling.
How to use it: use it alongside credit spreads, funding measures, and SPX to judge whether liquidity conditions are reinforcing or resisting the current equity trend.

Financial Conditions Monthly vs SPX Month-end Chicago Fed NFCI vs equity index

What it is: month-end Chicago Fed NFCI paired with month-end SPX for slower financial-conditions context.
How to read it: positive readings imply tighter-than-average conditions; negative readings imply easier-than-average conditions.
How to use it: use the monthly view to confirm whether daily liquidity changes are becoming durable enough to matter for SPX trend.

Yield Curve vs SPX 10Y-3M and 10Y-2Y Treasury slopes vs equity index

What it is: 10Y-3M and 10Y-2Y Treasury spreads. Negative values mean short rates are above long rates.
How to read it: deep inversion is usually late-cycle pressure; re-steepening after inversion can happen near recession risk or early recovery.
How to use it: use this with credit and SPX, not alone. A positive curve with calm credit is different from a curve steepening because growth is breaking.

10Y - 2Y Slope vs SPX Month-end yield curve slope vs equity index

What it is: the 10Y minus 2Y Treasury slope tracks curve steepness and whether the intermediate curve is positively sloped or inverted.
How to read it: deeply inverted curves often reflect restrictive policy and slower-growth expectations; re-steepening can signal either recovery or stress depending on context.
How to use it: compare the slope trend against SPX trend. A stabilizing or re-steepening curve with resilient equities can support recovery-watch conditions.

CPI YoY vs SPX Headline inflation vs equity index

What it is: CPI year-over-year tracks broad consumer inflation pressure across goods and services.
How to read it: accelerating inflation can pressure policy expectations and valuation multiples, while cooling inflation can relieve that pressure.
How to use it: watch whether SPX improves as CPI cools, especially when inflation decelerates without a major growth scare.

Core PCE YoY vs SPX Core inflation vs equity index

What it is: Core PCE year-over-year is the Fed’s preferred underlying inflation gauge, excluding food and energy.
How to read it: persistent core inflation tends to matter more for rate expectations than short-lived headline swings.
How to use it: compare core disinflation or re-acceleration against SPX leadership to judge whether easing inflation is truly supportive for risk assets.

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